The session was about technology assessment and forecasting, we were shown two videos, one of which was about Siemens, how they were looking at megatrends and responding towards them. Some of these megatrends include road congestions due to the increasing number of cars which can be solved with intelligent control systems that can regulate the flow of traffic. The demand for healthcare is also increasing, as such there is a growing role of quality, innovative standards have to set up, an example would be the digital hospital which records everything electronically thus it saves valuable time and can cut costs. By focusing on these megatrends, Siemens sees itself as an infrastructure company, as such they are well-placed in looking at changing needs and it can do to be at the forefront. The concept here is that how you see yourself as an organization plays a big part in shaping your core competencies and the way you move forward.
After several more quotes, we were shown another video about the top 3 inventions for the future. The first one was Nokia morph, which uses nanotechnology's ability to bring about bendable material, self-cleaning and morphing ability for anything. The second was Google Earth, but the 2020 edition. Lastly, there was the salt water fuel, which has been claimed to have been invented already. This is done when radio waves were aimed at salt water, the salt water actually burned to produce energy at very high temperatures. There were several other videos that were shown as well, but this video as well as the Siemens one stood out in my opinion.
Interesting Observations/Ideas
From Reading 2, it was shown that there were some similarities that existed between futurologists and science-fiction writers, in which they were both looking at the future. I felt that the differences were really insignificant, science-fiction writers were trying to entertain their readers, but like futurologists, they also look at present trends to visualise what the future would be like. That being said, the vision that science fiction writers have tends to deviate quite a big from what the actual future is like, possibly because as the reading suggested, science fiction is the result of individual efforts, hence the writers usually do not have a second opinion to turn to so that their vision is more accurate.
Given that Singapore started out as a poor country which had to struggle for survival, we are traditionally more frugal in contrast to European countries. However, it now appears that starting out with a humble background turned out to be a blessing in disguise as the European countries are now attempting to do the same to keep their economy going, albeit not without resistance. There have been riots in the streets of France due to longer working hours and lower pension fees.
In the 60s and 70s Xerox invented a lot of new things but other people took their ideas and produced real world applications, notably Steve Jobs and Bill Gates who visited Xerox when they were younger. Just because you started an idea does not mean that you will sustain your success, there will always be people around who will take your idea and bring it to the next level so it is up to you to continuously improve as well.
Key Takeaways
"For time and the world do not stand still. Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future"- John F Kennedy
"It is said that the present is pregnant with the future."- Voltaire
From these two quotes, it can be seen that change is the natural way of life, and we should not neglect the future by only looking at the past or the present. However, this does not mean that the future is more important than the present, because the seeds of the future are already present in the present. In order to be a true change leader, we have to look at the past, present and future, which is similar to what we are doing for our topical review.
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it"- Alan Kay
A true change leader should have this quote embedded in his head at all times, the present was not shaped by change leaders of the past simply standing idly by and predicting the future to happen. Change leaders of the past, be it inventors or idealogist, had a vision of what the future would be like and took affirmative action to make it happen. If a vision floats around in your head, don't simply wait for it to happen, make it happen.
All too often, there is a need for humans to experience a particular disaster, be it natural or man-made before we incorporate it to future scenarios. The September 11 attacks are a good example, prior to that, airport security was much more stringent and lax. However, after the attacks occured, even simple things such as water were barred from being brought onto the plane. As for me, I am glad that my approach thus far has been correct, I have always treated other people's experiences as my own, learning from their mistakes or any successful methods that they may have adopted.
Many of the major trends right now are major because they can combine together to attract a wider demographic, such as face recognition which contains both the trends of convenience and safety. Smartphones are also another example, utilising the trend of multi-purpose and convenience, which partly explains for the huge success that smartphones have thus far. There have been instances of new trends killing off old ones, such as MP3 players killing off CD players, but there are also instances where old trends adapt to become new trends, the television is one example of a product that has been reinvented many times over. Even after pinpointing a trend which you may want to focus on, to ensure success and reduced competition, a cloud opportunity has to be found.
Relative poverty will always be there. But as humans, we cannot allow absolute poverty. It is indeed possible to eliminate absolute poverty in the midst of the corruption that may prevent help from effectively reaching the people. There has to be a change in mindset of charity to helping the people to help themselves. As the proverb goes "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime." The reason why global charity has so far been largely ineffective is because people are focusing on the wrong source to help the less fortunate.
Issues for further discussion
It was stated in the lesson that gaming was not ready to be used for forecasting but it is expected to be a big thing in the future. I felt that more elaboration could have been given on why was gaming not yet ready to be used for forecasting.
Personal ratings
I rate this last "official" lesson a 9 as it brought the everything to a close very nicely, I took away plenty of insights from both the videos as well as the quotes used.
"Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today"- African Proverb
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