TWC Session 10

Brief Overview/Summary

The session was about technology assessment and forecasting, we were shown two videos, one of which was about Siemens, how they were looking at megatrends and responding towards them. Some of these megatrends include road congestions due to the increasing number of cars which can be solved with intelligent control systems that can regulate the flow of traffic. The demand for healthcare is also increasing, as such there is a growing role of quality, innovative standards have to set up, an example would be the digital hospital which records everything electronically thus it saves valuable time and can cut costs. By focusing on these megatrends, Siemens sees itself as an infrastructure company, as such they are well-placed in looking at changing needs and it can do to be at the forefront. The concept here is that how you see yourself as an organization plays a big part in shaping your core competencies and the way you move forward.

After several more quotes, we were shown another video about the top 3 inventions for the future. The first one was Nokia morph, which uses nanotechnology's ability to bring about bendable material, self-cleaning and morphing ability for anything. The second was Google Earth, but the 2020 edition. Lastly, there was the salt water fuel, which has been claimed to have been invented already. This is done when radio waves were aimed at salt water, the salt water actually burned to produce energy at very high temperatures. There were several other videos that were shown as well, but this video as well as the Siemens one stood out in my opinion.

Interesting Observations/Ideas

From Reading 2, it was shown that there were some similarities that existed between futurologists and science-fiction writers, in which they were both looking at the future. I felt that the differences were really insignificant, science-fiction writers were trying to entertain their readers, but like futurologists, they also look at present trends to visualise what the future would be like. That being said, the vision that science fiction writers have tends to deviate quite a big from what the actual future is like, possibly because as the reading suggested, science fiction is the result of individual efforts, hence the writers usually do not have a second opinion to turn to so that their vision is more accurate.

The Delphi method was also discussed in reading 2 which fascinated me, the name Delphi has its origin in Delphi's oracle, who was the most well-known oracle in ancient Greece. The method involves asking a set of questions to a group of experts; then refining the questions and posing them again to another group of experts recommended by the former, as well as administering the questions again to the former. The process is repeated many times to achieve clarity.

Given that Singapore started out as a poor country which had to struggle for survival, we are traditionally more frugal in contrast to European countries. However, it now appears that starting out with a humble background turned out to be a blessing in disguise as the European countries are now attempting to do the same to keep their economy going, albeit not without resistance. There have been riots in the streets of France due to longer working hours and lower pension fees.

 In the 60s and 70s Xerox invented a lot of new things but other people took their ideas and produced real world applications, notably Steve Jobs and Bill Gates who visited Xerox when they were younger. Just because you started an idea does not mean that you will sustain your success, there will always be people around who will take your idea and bring it to the next level so it is up to you to continuously improve as well.

Key Takeaways

"For time and the world do not stand still. Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future"- John F Kennedy
"It is said that the present is pregnant with the future."- Voltaire

From these two quotes, it can be seen that change is the natural way of life, and we should not neglect the future by only looking at the past or the present. However, this does not mean that the future is more important than the present, because the seeds of the future are already present in the present. In order to be a true change leader, we have to look at the past, present and future, which is similar to what we are doing for our topical review.

"The best way to predict the future is to invent it"- Alan Kay

A true change leader should have this quote embedded in his head at all times, the present was not shaped by change leaders of the past simply standing idly by and predicting the future to happen. Change leaders of the past, be it inventors or idealogist, had a vision of what the future would be like and took affirmative action to make it happen. If a vision floats around in your head, don't simply wait for it to happen, make it happen.

All too often, there is a need for humans to experience a particular disaster, be it natural or man-made before we incorporate it to future scenarios. The September 11 attacks are a good example, prior to that, airport security was much more stringent and lax. However, after the attacks occured, even simple things such as water were barred from being brought onto the plane. As for me, I am glad that my approach thus far has been correct, I have always treated other people's experiences as my own, learning from their mistakes or any successful methods that they may have adopted.

Many of the major trends right now are major because they can combine together to attract a wider demographic, such as face recognition which contains both the trends of convenience and safety. Smartphones are also another example, utilising the trend of multi-purpose and convenience, which partly explains for the huge success that smartphones have thus far. There have been instances of new trends killing off old ones, such as MP3 players killing off CD players, but there are also instances where old trends adapt to become new trends, the television is one example of a product that has been reinvented many times over. Even after pinpointing a trend which you may want to focus on, to ensure success and reduced competition, a cloud opportunity has to be found.

Relative poverty will always be there. But as humans, we cannot allow absolute poverty. It is indeed possible to eliminate absolute poverty in the midst of the corruption that may prevent help from effectively reaching the people. There has to be a change in mindset of charity to helping the people to help themselves. As the proverb goes "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime." The reason why global charity has so far been largely ineffective is because people are focusing on the wrong source to help the less fortunate.

Issues for further discussion

It was stated in the lesson that gaming was not ready to be used for forecasting but it is expected to be a big thing in the future. I felt that more elaboration could have been given on why was gaming not yet ready to be used for forecasting.

Personal ratings

I rate this last "official" lesson a 9 as it brought the everything to a close very nicely, I took away plenty of insights from both the videos as well as the quotes used.

"Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today"- African Proverb

TWC Session 9

Brief Overview/Summary


The lesson was about emerging and future technologies, we discussed about the drivers for the development of such technologies, such as to tap into opportunities and needs as well as mass media. The drivers can be divied into two groups, technology driven and market driven, while mass media has the power to influence our wants and needs. Several videos about interesting new technologies, like claytonics and plastic electronics were shown.


We could also think about sales and marketing as push and pull respectively. Sales is similar to pushing the products to the customers while marketing is trying to draw the market to you. We talked about the confluence of the 4 smarts, smart people can come up with smart ideas, but without smart money and smart alliances and partnerships(advertising and marketing people, as well as legal people for example patents), they can't do anything as well. Some sort of smart money and partnerships such as legal ones must be there in order to translate the idea to the market.

Interesting Observations/Ideas

One of the videos shown was about these two students in Japan who developed a robot in the form of a woman with artificial intelligence and was named Lisa. Lisa had vocal, tactile and visual recognition. Some of the benefits listed was that there were so many single men in the world, this can help to curb the loneliness of those men. Robots are gradually becoming more human like while humans are starting to become more machine like, it will become very hard to differentiate between humans and machines in the future. These robots with AI could even be designed to fit the tastes and whims of those who demand them, would it be possible to have virtual love in the future, where a person and a robot are both aware of the fact they are in love with each other. This idea is not inconceivable in the near future, but it is albeit a very disturbing one.

Proponents that support such an idea state that it is similar to with the idea of homosexuals, which goes against the very idea of being human and reproducing the next generation. Robot human marriage have been allowed in Massachusetts already, these changes will soon make us question what it truely means to be human since the definition of humans are going to change over time. However, I feel that there has to be a certain line drawn between what may be more acceptable as time passes and what will never be acceptable. For the instance of homosexuals, the two parties that are in love are still humans, regardless of whatever definition of humans one may use, while that between a robot will not fall into all the definitions of what it means to be a human not matter how man-like 'it' may seem. Maybe the next generation will be more open to this, just as how our generation is more open towards homosexuals compared to the previous generation.


Table 1 of Reading 2 gave a summary of the major nanomaterials currently in research and development, such as quantum wells, catalytic nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes. It is fascinating to imagine that something so small is able to impact numerous parts of our lives. Carbon nanotubes have the potential to become 50-100 times stronger than steel at one sixth of the weight. This opens up to doorway for faster spacecrafts and aircraft, since the materials used will soon be lighter and stronger. As for catalytic nanoparticles, it can draw a little skepticism since it was mentioned in class that it is better to augment our own cells to be able to perform such functions than to introduce artificial nanoparticles into our body. Why look beyond the horizon when the answer is simply right before your very eyes?

Augmented reality is where you start with reality and use technology to augment what you have so that you can evaluate how good it is. Our smart phones is one place where augmented reality could be used, imagine taking a photo of yourself and then being able to fit yourself with various clothings and items before seeing which one is best suited for you and buying it. The question then arises whether traditional retail shopping and blog shops will be replaced by shopping done by augmented reality. Personally, I feel that blog shops have the potential to complement augmented reality and even help to increase the success of augmented reality. In light of this, retail shopping certainly seems doomed, but there will be times when people just want to do retail shopping to meet friends and family or even to get some fresh air even if it is more convenient to do it at the comfort of their own homes.

Key Takeaways

Plastic electronics has the potential to shake the computer industry worldwide and trigger the next industrial revolution. A flexible display could be made of plastic instead of silicon, which is lighter and cheaper. If the development of plastic electronics is successful, every silicon material in the future can be replaced by plastic. Imagine a flexible mobile display for mobiles and ebooks, and since the plastic display is most likely less brittle than silicon ones, displays can now be used for purposes which were previously deemed unsuitable for silicon displays.

The Virtusphere is one application which can benefit from plastic electronics, and since my topical review paper is on virtual reality, rather than having the hassle of wearing head mounted displays, the entire sphere could be filled with plastic displays. Since the plastic displays will be cheaper than silicon ones, having the displays instead coupled with highly realistic graphics can really help the user believe that he is in an actual environment. This will coincide with the trend of convenience, even though it is done at a higher cost.

GPS is a blessing as well as a curse, on one hand it is very easy for a person to know where he is exactly, however it is very easy for others to track you easily. Hence begs the question of the lack of privacy. There are certain times where we prefer to be alone so that we can process our thoughts properly, and GPS will actually prove to work against us in such instances. In the future, it will certainly make me think twice before I think about carrying my phone around when I simply want some time for peace and quiet.  

Issues for discussion

The greed of man is endless, and as we continuously try to innovate based on our wants and needs, we are beginning to intrude upon the boundaries of what it means to be human. Is there a need to fall back on our traditional values and beliefs instead? To look back before we continue to look forward? Should religion step in and urge everyone to pause and think before we proceed, will the once great enemy of science become its greatest ally?

Personal Ratings

I personally rate this lesson a 9 as many of the emerging technologies that were shown have been an eye opener, it has certainly made me look forward to what is in store for the future.

"When it comes to new emerging technologies, we are limited only by our imagination (or lack thereof)."-Gurinder Shahi

TWC Session 8

Brief Overview


The lesson was about energy and world change, how the need for energy is changing our world and the various breakthroughs currently happening in the sector. We discussed about some drivers of global energy change, such as rising energy consumption and need for economic development, as well as the new technologies and approaches that surface. In particular, the rising energy consumption has proven to be a very pressing issue to urge change to happen, China is currently using 25% of oil compared to US, but consumption is growing rapidly, the country used to be known as a net coal exporter but it is now a net coal importer.


Suprisingly, despite all the talk about rising energy consumption, last year was the first time that there was a reduction in primary energy consumption, largely due to the economic downturn last year.


We also talked about the important factors that needed to be considered before changes can be implemented, such as energy security and biotechnology. We have to increase efficiency of current energy sources including fuel, in addition, we have to diversify our energy sources, rather than focusing on one, we have to look at other sources like solar and wind energy. As for biotechnology, it has been said that it is the sector with the biggest potential of possibly being the next big energy source, but the only concern pertinent is the health issue, prolonged exposure to biowaste may lead to the an increased tendency to fall ill.


Interesting Observations/Ideas

When the steam engine was invented, wood was the required raw material for it to work, since wood is a renewable resource, renewable energy sources were 100% utilised in the past. However, soon enough the forests depleted too fast to be regrown. Fortunately, fossil fuels helped to prevent this from occuring further, but there is another side to this, humans became too addicted to using fossil fuels and there is a need now to turn back to renewable energy sources. This is because renewable energy sources are likely to have minimal negative impact to the environment as compared to fossil fuels. Thankfully, there are plenty of visionaries around who have foreseen the need for this and have been working day in day out just to create alternative energy sources which can be used by the masses efficiently.


From reading 2, it states that up to 2050, known technologies can be readied to achieve deep cuts in CO2 but more fundamental changes in energy technologies will be required beyond that. This means that we must start thinking up of more radical ways to alter our usage of energy rather than just doing minor modifications on the surface. Perhaps as one of the videos shown mentioned, we can build solar plants in the middle of deserts such as the Sahara, where sunlight is abundant through majority of the day. Thus, we can turn something which is supposedly of a hassle to us (the desert) instead to something which is invaluable to us. The reading also states the possible routes that the transport system can take in the future, whereby vehicles can run on electricity or hydrogen or even very-low-emission biofuels. This is something which may very likely happen in the extremely near future, hybrid cars are already partially running on electricity, the hydrogen fuel cell is commonly used on spaceships while the biotechnology industry is known to be one of the most booming industries at the moment.


As Ren Liang had mentioned in his presentation, which was about using osmosis to generate an energy source, this idea has the potential to become a huge success in Singapore by using fresh seawater and processed saltier water in desalination plants. Given that Singapore is an island surrounded by seawater and the fact that we have desalination plants here, this idea is simply waiting to be set into place here, with the only potential roadblock being the cost involved. There might be substantial cost involved to incorporate the two together, as well as the fact that currently the partially permeable membranes have to be replaced periodically due to the salt and dirt particles that accumulate. Although this may be the case, but Singapore is one of the leading countries for developing such membranes, in the future there may be a new type of membrane that can be cleaned and hence the cost required for replacing it will be non-existent.

Currently, 95% of Nigeria's GDP comes from the petroleum industry, but this is not going to last forever. They are trying to use the wealth that they generated from the petroleum industry to build research institutions and industries to develop alternative energy sources. This is because countries such as those in OPEC understand that when the oil runs out, they will need to find other forms of income and what better way to do it than energy sources, the sector which they are already in. The effectiveness of such initiatives, are limited to a certain extent due to the corruption that exist within the countries.


Key Takeaways

Every year, 3.85 million EJ of solar energy falls onto the earth. Wind and Biomass energy constitutes 2,250EJ and 3,000EJ respectively. If we can trap such energies efficiently, we will have enough energy to meet all of our needs. However, only 487EJ is for primary energy use and 56.7EJ is converted to electricity as of 2005. We need to devise of new approaches that can enable us to capture such energies effeciently, and not just relying on the efficiency of the devices used. For far too long have researchers been too focused on getting solar panels to absorb and convert more solar energy into electrical energy without thinking of how best to capture the rest of the solar energy which is not captured and wasted daily. As stated earlier, placing solar plants in the desert is one way, wind turbines have also been placed in the middle of oceans which I felt was a good idea as well.


Germany is not the hottest place in the world, the country has four seasons which means that it does not receive that much sunlight during winter, but yet so much has been invested into solar energy. Due to the success of solar energy there, they can even attain the achievement of having renewable resources of energy constituting 30% of energy supplied by 2020, surpassing the 20% mark set by the EU themselves. Given that Singapore does not even have four seasons and thus potentially has more sunlight annually compared to Germany, why are we not adopting such an approach and instead standing idly by and choosing to be dependent on others.

In order to get countries who are choosing to stand idly by to join the cause, activist may have to come up with a feasible model and framework that can ensure that choosing to adopt the approach of using more renewable energy will be successful. Germany's framework can be seen as an ideal model as it adopts the tactic that the world is very receptive to, which is through monetary means by giving monetary incentives to ensure that the public at large instead makes more money from installing the solar panels and thereafter selling the energy to the government. Singapore can also adopt such a tactic for private houses, and even for HDB flats where the entire building can be installed with solar panels and the residents there can receive a monthly income for selling the energy to the government. It seems as though the reason for why some governments choose to stand idly by is because they are unwilling to sacrifice a portion of their budget for something which is not gauranteed to succeed. However, if the governments can convince the people to install it on their own accord as they themselves would benefit from it, then no budget will have to be sacrificed.


Issues for Further Discussion


The pertinent issue of health concern from usage of biotechnology was briefly discussed, but what are some of the ways instead that we could adopt to resolve this issue? I felt that this was important given that biotechnology is currently touted as the next big energy source.


Personal Ratings


I rate this lesson a 9 as I really learnt plenty of interesting facts and took home some useful information which was closely related to Singapore as well, in addition to the fact that renewable energy has never failed to pique my interest.